Dr. Sherry Cooper offers her predictions for 2019.
1). Canada’s economy will continue to under perform the U.S.
2.) Canada’s population growth will lead the G7 by a wide margin.
3.) Canadian consumers are tapped out
4.) The Fed and the Bank of Canada will raise rates in 2019 by more than the market currently expects.
5.) Even with only modest rate increases in 2019, consumers will be impacted because they are so heavily exposed to debt.
6.) This effect will be offset by stronger wage growth
7.) Rising interest rates will squeeze government spending for the feds and provinces with significant debt loads.
8.) Corporate balance sheets will be negatively impacted by higher interest rates
9.) Canada could be caught in the crosshairs of a U.S.-China trade war, but free-trade deals with Europe (CETA) and China (CPTPP) will reap benefits
10). Comparable to last year, housing in 2019 will not fuel Canada’s national economy, thanks to macroprudential policy measures and modestly higher interest rates. Housing accounted for a record-high percentage of overall economic growth and job creation until early last year.
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